(C) 1999 - Bogomil Kostoff AVRAMOV - HEMY
Bogomil Kostoff AVRAMOV - HEMY
24 Ivan Drassov Street, 9002-Varna, Bulgaria.
Telefax: +359 52 226 606
Fax: +359 52 244 030
c/o Hemy International
ECOCONSULT 77 - RD Studio
COMPARATIVE TECHNOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT PRIOR CHANGE
Key Words
Introduction
Comparative Approuch
Change Types
Change Problems
Living Standart Sustainabilities
Comparative Systems
Conclussions
Literature
Acknowlegements
Tables and Figures
Table 01 - Matrix of the Study
Tabble 02 - Inovative Change Assessments
Table 03 - Change Decisson Makers
Figure 01 - Basdic Steps for the Comparative Research
Figure 02 - Great Technological Changes and Consequences
Key Words
Adjustment, Approuch, Application, Assessment, Change, Choice, Comparition, Decay, Decission, Equalisation, Global, Technology, Imperatives, Euristical, Experimental, Makers, Impact, Innovations. . .
01.
Introduction
To realise any great Technological Change, was been and it is the main aim of many of the top political leaders of ours times, some times converted to the structures and the habits of any religion. But the humanity has got enough different religions and one more or less is not a problem for the formalized science thinking. Infact the problem is in the transfer of new or oldfashion technologies well or badly tailored to the country finance-political situation, where they are realized. Forgetimg to think for the most important things of the problem:
- the destruction of the Nature because of the transfer of raw-materials,
- the destruction of the Society because of the imported new type of thinking,
- the destruction of the Nature because of the discharging and the disposing of the prefabricated wastes.
And from here the controlable or uncontrolable Impact over the Nature Equilibrium. About which every time the starting dates are not enough reliable.
The home made strategists, every time backed from the rulling political parties, every time miss to do one short important procedure: The Specialized Technological Comparative Choice as an end aspect of all of the research procedures before to do the last Technological Assessment Decission over the Inovations Impact in the case of the Great Technological Change.
02.
Comparative Approuch
Depending from the different Preliminary Competitive Technological Choices, as a result from the experts studies over the main disscussed problem, where every new approuch in addition to the unknown positive and negative imperatives is desirable as for the routine previously comparition, thus and for last formal projecting; every Great Technological Change - planned or nonplaned, has done its great Technological Impact over the nation or group of nations, over the society or a group of societies over the persons or a group of persons. Some time with so strange character. One nice example is the international cooperationfor the development of the Bulgarian Shipbuilding Industry for the translation of well known from the literature japan Know-How back from 30 years till nowdays, with the most lamentable result at the end. (1970-2000). The governmental privatization finished with closing of the bulhgarian shipbuilding infact.
In ours days, in the Posttotalitarian Countries, where the limitations over the significant technological choices are covered from the same ex-party aristocracy, where the political knowledge is adjusted from the same hardly particism, the Comparative Approuch to the Main Problems of the Privatisation again is well forgotten. The centralized Prticism till now controled not only the public media, bur\t also and previously the Science Comparative Approuch and the following activities are not again prohibited but are so tricy limited through the minimisation of the research funds, frossening the science and research facilities to close them easily because of there spedly moral decay.
03.
Change Types
The Great Technological Changes every time are great trade products. Not only a product of the science and research, but also and previously like a wide complex of unknown for the imported countries goods, services and banks of informations.The Great Technological Changes could be as follows:
- Organical TC growing as a result from the economical, and at last and ecological conditions in the most wide sense of the analized country situations;
- Artifical TC as a result from the realizing of the total national conceptions independly opened or closed for tha nation in reconstructions;
- Mixed TC out of any wide regulations, but in high development after the SWW.
While the Organical TC (OTC) is not restricted anywhere and begins, starts and develops on the spot of the first area application, from any country which provided such products as a strategical product for export, the Artifical Technological Changes are changes copied and translated from the spot of inovation to the spot of application, some times roughly prefabricated for any political purposes.
Ours times were shown, that every Great Technological, Changes purposed for export, before all is a well planed political games, based noto the unknown for the importer political approuchments,
comparatively new strategical technologies, and new conceptional wiev to the Global Economy Problems in theres local and regional measurngs.
When all of such changes are provided under any strictly particism control, the projected Economical Development speedly run to nil ignoring the truly economicval results and proclaiming only the political priorities. After a not so long and never ethernal period of entusiastic media time, the Regional Global Economical Change has going to decay. And the political priorities again must change to more sustainable for all of the community.
04.
Change Problems
The results of the application of the Great Technological Changes (GTC), previously depends from the:
- Specifical National Philosohpy and Spirit Adjustment,
- National and International Market in the area of applications.
This has means, that from an important meaning are:
- the moment in the time of the Technological Choice,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Assessment,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Projecting,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Realisation into the Space,
- the line of the time of the Technological Exploitation as it is in the Project,
but also and before:
- the system of the International Finance Control,
- the system of the National Finance Control,
- the system of the International Regulations in the region of the development,
- the endured national parivate and governmental funds,
- the endured international funds and the unternational interest for investing, etc . . .
05.
Living Standart Sustainabilities
The raising up of the living standarts dimentions all over the world, may compare only with the raising up or felt down of the suxess of the Global Technological Changes all over the world.
The processes of the equalisation of these standarts between the exporter of the Technologies for Choice and the importer of the Technological Change Projects, has got many known and unknown wide patterns, Discovered from the researchers for analizing and optimisation through the time of the application of the Project, though thr time of the Total Cicle of the Translation of the Knowledge, of the Equipment and Mashines, Technological and Political Practize.
Occassionally all of these patterns are legal or nonlegal, formal or nonformal, and the results some times could be so strange. The Main Question any time is:
WHY THE INVESTED FUNDS IN THE SCIENCE, RESEARCH AND APPLICATION
FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SYSTEM OF ANY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,
HAS WORKS WELL ONLY AT WEST,
AND PARTL AT THE EAST.
To answer all of these simple on the first glance but very high by theres meaning questions, the researchers must answer and compare:
- the Natrional Mentality,
- the Local and Regional Particism,
- the type of the Permanent Education,
- the Base Groups of the living standarts between the Importer and Exporter,
- the living standarts of the Scientists and the Researchers of the comparable countries,
- the International and Regional Political Sitruation, etc. . . etc . . .
Such comparissions ocassionally are avoided from the Politicians, wehich converted every Great Technological Changes into Consecutive Political Illusions.
06.
Comparative Systems
Steward (1982), looking for any Global Comparative System for research, mentioned two important sides of the Comparative Scientism:
- Internal (for firms),
- External (between the firms),
which may easy translate to the intergovernmental relations if they are coexists.
We have believe, that one more detailed system could be done more information for the Previously Comparatrive Analize, and namely:
- International,
- National,
- Groupal,
- Intergroupal,
- Regional,
- Interregional,
- Global . . .
To check the steps of the Comparative Research Approuchings, must check Figure 01.
To check the nature of the Great Technological Change and Consecuences, must use the Figure 02, where the possitions 04 and 05 often changed theres places totally compressed from the market prices and the living standarts of the doing knowledge for development researchers.
When the Comparative Analize (CA) has going away from the euristical steps to the metrical reflection of the documented realities, the matrix of the study must build onto one 100 % assessment of the presented bellow parameters received through the custom methods of the science, presenting them in one summary matrix (Table 01.)
Table 01
Matrix of the Study
No Assessment Parameters Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Raw Materials USD/Totally
02. Energy Souces
03. Energy Expenses
04. Communications
05. Logistical Expenses
06. Managers number
07. Managers Qualification
08. Managers Particism
09. Skiled Labor Force
91. Imported
92. Local
10. Semiskiled Labour Force
101. Imported
102. Local
11. Nonsciled Labor Force
111. Imported
112. Local
12. Included New Inventions
121. Imp[orted
122. Regional
13. Application of New Technologies
131. Imported
132. Regional
133. Local
14. Reliability of the Inventions
141. Imported
142. Regional
143. Local
15. Periodical Communications Jammings
151. Local (in-out)
152. Regional (in-out)
153. Global (in-out)
16. Stock Exchange Conditions
161. Local
162. Regional
163. Global
17. Legal Sector Abilities
18. Nongovernmental Watching
Naturally each parameter from Table o1 is the end product of a specialised assessment matrix. From theres reliability depends the reliability and of the end matrix from Table 01, purposed for a monitoring of the ofertimg of the import/export projects.
Table 02
Matrix of Indicators
No Indicators of Impact Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Inovative Changes - World Level
02. Inovative Changes - Regional Level
03. Inovative Changes - Country Level
04. Inovative Changes - Local Level
05. Inovative Changes - Plant Level
06. Inovative Changes - Workers Level
07. Inovative Changes - Personal Level
08. Inovative Changes - Group Level
09. Inovative Changes Living Standart Level
91. Local
92. Regional
93. Global
Through the processes of the General Comparative Technological Assessment Prior to A Great Technological Change, aslo has a place the assessment of the saturation of the Decission Makers, concerned to the Translated Technological Changes as it has follows Table 03.
Table 03.
Decission Makers Matrix
No Assessment Parameters Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Microenvironmental Concerned Experts
02. Mediaenvironmental Concerned Experts
03. Mesoenvironmental Concerned Exoerts
04. Megaenvironmental Concerned Experts
05. Macroenvironmental Concerned Experts
06. Natureenvironmental Concerned Experts
07. Choice Decission Makers purpozed
08. Technological Concerned Experts
09. Technocracy Assessment Crew
10. Partocracy Watching Bodies
11. Governmental Instutionalized Experts
12. Nongovernmental Freelance Experts
13. Private Vollunteers
14. Independend Decission Makers.
It may suppose, that the results of the Final Impact Assessment Decission depends mainly from the comparission of the satturation with any kind from the abovementioned group of expert researchers. If they are closely connected to the translation or the development of the Great Technological Changes, these Changes some times are really suxessful. But never enough concerning the problems of the Nature Environment Equilibrium in local, regional, national and global meaning.
07.
Conclussions
The Comparative Technological Assessment (CTE) prior the Great Technological Changes (GTC), as a result from one well projected Technological Choice, is a stable, cxxompulsory and a natural requirement and a base clause for every approuch to a stable Ecological Equilibrium, as a first step to the Equalisation of the Living Standarts between the Exporting of the Technological Cjanges country to the Importing well provided Technological Changes country.
It is a sadly truth, that all of these approachings are truly avoided in these countries, where the Particism is not only a working doctrine, but much more than any compulsory citien religion. In such similar cases, the system methods for approuchings to the nearby softly known future is not a need for everyone.
Independly from this the abovementioe method is purposed to compare between the firms under a contest, to compare and verufy:
- avery empirical expert decission,
- every group of empoirical group decissions,
- every consequences of the Technological Changes,
- every concequences of the political changes,
- every rationalisation of the governmental policy,
` - every relationships between the components of the developed programmes,
- every identification of ewvery conflict situation
- every starting and promotion of local, regional or global projects . . .
Such method also is the first step to build one contemporary Expert System for Comparative Technological Assessment prior t\he Global International Political, Economical and Technological Changes .
08.
Literature
1. Understanding Environmental Issues in Central and Eastern Europe.
A study based on the situation of the Czech Republic,
by Milan Caha, REC Paper Series No 03, Budapest - 1994.
2. Comparative Technological Change,
by Eric Baark, Lund - 1982.
3. Methods and Experiences in Impact Assessment,
by Henk A. Becker & Alan L. Porter,
IAIA - 1986.
4. The Uses, Validity, and Reliability of Perceived Environmental Quality Indicators,
by ERic L. Hyman,
East - West Center, Honolulu - 1981.
5. Perspectives for Sustainables Living in Europe, Japan and North America,
Workshop Papers, Vesmir - 1995.
Bogomil Kostoff AVRAMOV - HEMY D.I.
Bulgaria, Varna August 17-97/17-99.
o Indicators of Impact Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Inovative Changes - WorЂ
Bogomil Kostoff AVRAMOV - HEMY
24 Ivan Drassov Street, 9002-Varna, Bulgaria.
Telefax: +359 52 226 606
Fax: +359 52 244 030
c/o Hemy International
ECOCONSULT 77 - RD Studio
COMPARATIVE TECHNOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT PRIOR CHANGE
Key Words
Introduction
Comparative Approuch
Change Types
Change Problems
Living Standart Sustainabilities
Comparative Systems
Conclussions
Literature
Acknowlegements
Tables and Figures
Table 01 - Matrix of the Study
Tabble 02 - Inovative Change Assessments
Table 03 - Change Decisson Makers
Figure 01 - Basdic Steps for the Comparative Research
Figure 02 - Great Technological Changes and Consequences
Key Words
Adjustment, Approuch, Application, Assessment, Change, Choice, Comparition, Decay, Decission, Equalisation, Global, Technology, Imperatives, Euristical, Experimental, Makers, Impact, Innovations. . .
01.
Introduction
To realise any great Technological Change, was been and it is the main aim of many of the top political leaders of ours times, some times converted to the structures and the habits of any religion. But the humanity has got enough different religions and one more or less is not a problem for the formalized science thinking. Infact the problem is in the transfer of new or oldfashion technologies well or badly tailored to the country finance-political situation, where they are realized. Forgetimg to think for the most important things of the problem:
- the destruction of the Nature because of the transfer of raw-materials,
- the destruction of the Society because of the imported new type of thinking,
- the destruction of the Nature because of the discharging and the disposing of the prefabricated wastes.
And from here the controlable or uncontrolable Impact over the Nature Equilibrium. About which every time the starting dates are not enough reliable.
The home made strategists, every time backed from the rulling political parties, every time miss to do one short important procedure: The Specialized Technological Comparative Choice as an end aspect of all of the research procedures before to do the last Technological Assessment Decission over the Inovations Impact in the case of the Great Technological Change.
02.
Comparative Approuch
Depending from the different Preliminary Competitive Technological Choices, as a result from the experts studies over the main disscussed problem, where every new approuch in addition to the unknown positive and negative imperatives is desirable as for the routine previously comparition, thus and for last formal projecting; every Great Technological Change - planned or nonplaned, has done its great Technological Impact over the nation or group of nations, over the society or a group of societies over the persons or a group of persons. Some time with so strange character. One nice example is the international cooperationfor the development of the Bulgarian Shipbuilding Industry for the translation of well known from the literature japan Know-How back from 30 years till nowdays, with the most lamentable result at the end. (1970-2000). The governmental privatization finished with closing of the bulhgarian shipbuilding infact.
In ours days, in the Posttotalitarian Countries, where the limitations over the significant technological choices are covered from the same ex-party aristocracy, where the political knowledge is adjusted from the same hardly particism, the Comparative Approuch to the Main Problems of the Privatisation again is well forgotten. The centralized Prticism till now controled not only the public media, bur\t also and previously the Science Comparative Approuch and the following activities are not again prohibited but are so tricy limited through the minimisation of the research funds, frossening the science and research facilities to close them easily because of there spedly moral decay.
03.
Change Types
The Great Technological Changes every time are great trade products. Not only a product of the science and research, but also and previously like a wide complex of unknown for the imported countries goods, services and banks of informations.The Great Technological Changes could be as follows:
- Organical TC growing as a result from the economical, and at last and ecological conditions in the most wide sense of the analized country situations;
- Artifical TC as a result from the realizing of the total national conceptions independly opened or closed for tha nation in reconstructions;
- Mixed TC out of any wide regulations, but in high development after the SWW.
While the Organical TC (OTC) is not restricted anywhere and begins, starts and develops on the spot of the first area application, from any country which provided such products as a strategical product for export, the Artifical Technological Changes are changes copied and translated from the spot of inovation to the spot of application, some times roughly prefabricated for any political purposes.
Ours times were shown, that every Great Technological, Changes purposed for export, before all is a well planed political games, based noto the unknown for the importer political approuchments,
comparatively new strategical technologies, and new conceptional wiev to the Global Economy Problems in theres local and regional measurngs.
When all of such changes are provided under any strictly particism control, the projected Economical Development speedly run to nil ignoring the truly economicval results and proclaiming only the political priorities. After a not so long and never ethernal period of entusiastic media time, the Regional Global Economical Change has going to decay. And the political priorities again must change to more sustainable for all of the community.
04.
Change Problems
The results of the application of the Great Technological Changes (GTC), previously depends from the:
- Specifical National Philosohpy and Spirit Adjustment,
- National and International Market in the area of applications.
This has means, that from an important meaning are:
- the moment in the time of the Technological Choice,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Assessment,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Projecting,
- the moment of the time of the Technological Realisation into the Space,
- the line of the time of the Technological Exploitation as it is in the Project,
but also and before:
- the system of the International Finance Control,
- the system of the National Finance Control,
- the system of the International Regulations in the region of the development,
- the endured national parivate and governmental funds,
- the endured international funds and the unternational interest for investing, etc . . .
05.
Living Standart Sustainabilities
The raising up of the living standarts dimentions all over the world, may compare only with the raising up or felt down of the suxess of the Global Technological Changes all over the world.
The processes of the equalisation of these standarts between the exporter of the Technologies for Choice and the importer of the Technological Change Projects, has got many known and unknown wide patterns, Discovered from the researchers for analizing and optimisation through the time of the application of the Project, though thr time of the Total Cicle of the Translation of the Knowledge, of the Equipment and Mashines, Technological and Political Practize.
Occassionally all of these patterns are legal or nonlegal, formal or nonformal, and the results some times could be so strange. The Main Question any time is:
WHY THE INVESTED FUNDS IN THE SCIENCE, RESEARCH AND APPLICATION
FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SYSTEM OF ANY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,
HAS WORKS WELL ONLY AT WEST,
AND PARTL AT THE EAST.
To answer all of these simple on the first glance but very high by theres meaning questions, the researchers must answer and compare:
- the Natrional Mentality,
- the Local and Regional Particism,
- the type of the Permanent Education,
- the Base Groups of the living standarts between the Importer and Exporter,
- the living standarts of the Scientists and the Researchers of the comparable countries,
- the International and Regional Political Sitruation, etc. . . etc . . .
Such comparissions ocassionally are avoided from the Politicians, wehich converted every Great Technological Changes into Consecutive Political Illusions.
06.
Comparative Systems
Steward (1982), looking for any Global Comparative System for research, mentioned two important sides of the Comparative Scientism:
- Internal (for firms),
- External (between the firms),
which may easy translate to the intergovernmental relations if they are coexists.
We have believe, that one more detailed system could be done more information for the Previously Comparatrive Analize, and namely:
- International,
- National,
- Groupal,
- Intergroupal,
- Regional,
- Interregional,
- Global . . .
To check the steps of the Comparative Research Approuchings, must check Figure 01.
To check the nature of the Great Technological Change and Consecuences, must use the Figure 02, where the possitions 04 and 05 often changed theres places totally compressed from the market prices and the living standarts of the doing knowledge for development researchers.
When the Comparative Analize (CA) has going away from the euristical steps to the metrical reflection of the documented realities, the matrix of the study must build onto one 100 % assessment of the presented bellow parameters received through the custom methods of the science, presenting them in one summary matrix (Table 01.)
Table 01
Matrix of the Study
No Assessment Parameters Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Raw Materials USD/Totally
02. Energy Souces
03. Energy Expenses
04. Communications
05. Logistical Expenses
06. Managers number
07. Managers Qualification
08. Managers Particism
09. Skiled Labor Force
91. Imported
92. Local
10. Semiskiled Labour Force
101. Imported
102. Local
11. Nonsciled Labor Force
111. Imported
112. Local
12. Included New Inventions
121. Imp[orted
122. Regional
13. Application of New Technologies
131. Imported
132. Regional
133. Local
14. Reliability of the Inventions
141. Imported
142. Regional
143. Local
15. Periodical Communications Jammings
151. Local (in-out)
152. Regional (in-out)
153. Global (in-out)
16. Stock Exchange Conditions
161. Local
162. Regional
163. Global
17. Legal Sector Abilities
18. Nongovernmental Watching
Naturally each parameter from Table o1 is the end product of a specialised assessment matrix. From theres reliability depends the reliability and of the end matrix from Table 01, purposed for a monitoring of the ofertimg of the import/export projects.
Table 02
Matrix of Indicators
No Indicators of Impact Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Inovative Changes - World Level
02. Inovative Changes - Regional Level
03. Inovative Changes - Country Level
04. Inovative Changes - Local Level
05. Inovative Changes - Plant Level
06. Inovative Changes - Workers Level
07. Inovative Changes - Personal Level
08. Inovative Changes - Group Level
09. Inovative Changes Living Standart Level
91. Local
92. Regional
93. Global
Through the processes of the General Comparative Technological Assessment Prior to A Great Technological Change, aslo has a place the assessment of the saturation of the Decission Makers, concerned to the Translated Technological Changes as it has follows Table 03.
Table 03.
Decission Makers Matrix
No Assessment Parameters Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Microenvironmental Concerned Experts
02. Mediaenvironmental Concerned Experts
03. Mesoenvironmental Concerned Exoerts
04. Megaenvironmental Concerned Experts
05. Macroenvironmental Concerned Experts
06. Natureenvironmental Concerned Experts
07. Choice Decission Makers purpozed
08. Technological Concerned Experts
09. Technocracy Assessment Crew
10. Partocracy Watching Bodies
11. Governmental Instutionalized Experts
12. Nongovernmental Freelance Experts
13. Private Vollunteers
14. Independend Decission Makers.
It may suppose, that the results of the Final Impact Assessment Decission depends mainly from the comparission of the satturation with any kind from the abovementioned group of expert researchers. If they are closely connected to the translation or the development of the Great Technological Changes, these Changes some times are really suxessful. But never enough concerning the problems of the Nature Environment Equilibrium in local, regional, national and global meaning.
07.
Conclussions
The Comparative Technological Assessment (CTE) prior the Great Technological Changes (GTC), as a result from one well projected Technological Choice, is a stable, cxxompulsory and a natural requirement and a base clause for every approuch to a stable Ecological Equilibrium, as a first step to the Equalisation of the Living Standarts between the Exporting of the Technological Cjanges country to the Importing well provided Technological Changes country.
It is a sadly truth, that all of these approachings are truly avoided in these countries, where the Particism is not only a working doctrine, but much more than any compulsory citien religion. In such similar cases, the system methods for approuchings to the nearby softly known future is not a need for everyone.
Independly from this the abovementioe method is purposed to compare between the firms under a contest, to compare and verufy:
- avery empirical expert decission,
- every group of empoirical group decissions,
- every consequences of the Technological Changes,
- every concequences of the political changes,
- every rationalisation of the governmental policy,
` - every relationships between the components of the developed programmes,
- every identification of ewvery conflict situation
- every starting and promotion of local, regional or global projects . . .
Such method also is the first step to build one contemporary Expert System for Comparative Technological Assessment prior t\he Global International Political, Economical and Technological Changes .
08.
Literature
1. Understanding Environmental Issues in Central and Eastern Europe.
A study based on the situation of the Czech Republic,
by Milan Caha, REC Paper Series No 03, Budapest - 1994.
2. Comparative Technological Change,
by Eric Baark, Lund - 1982.
3. Methods and Experiences in Impact Assessment,
by Henk A. Becker & Alan L. Porter,
IAIA - 1986.
4. The Uses, Validity, and Reliability of Perceived Environmental Quality Indicators,
by ERic L. Hyman,
East - West Center, Honolulu - 1981.
5. Perspectives for Sustainables Living in Europe, Japan and North America,
Workshop Papers, Vesmir - 1995.
Bogomil Kostoff AVRAMOV - HEMY D.I.
Bulgaria, Varna August 17-97/17-99.
o Indicators of Impact Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Remark
01. Inovative Changes - WorЂ
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